IN the last few weeks of the gruelling primary campaign, Senator Barack Obama made two important visits. He spoke to the Cuban American National Foundation (CANF) and to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). To both groups Obama provided some red meat. To the Cubans in Miami, he said that he would be tough on the Cuban Revolution, that never in his lifetime “have the people of Cuba known freedom” and that he would join CANF to “stand up for freedom in Cuba”.
To the Jewish American lobby in Chicago, Obama affirmed the “special relationship” between Washington and Tel Aviv, supporting Israel’s view of its relationship with its Arab neighbours and of the Occupation and going so far as to say that Jerusalem would remain the undivided capital of Israel. As the Democratic presidential nomination comes his way, Obama tacks right on foreign policy, to the dismay of many of his left-liberal allies. How can the man whose campaign is centred on the idea of change inhabit American foreign policy’s two most tired shackles?Florida
Over the past 35 years, the United States electoral map has settled into stasis. Appealing to the anxiety of a large section of the white working class, the Republican Party has cemented its hold on the U.S. South and sections of the heartland. The Republicans explain away the attrition of white working class livelihood due to globalisation and to neoliberal policy as the fault of the new social programmes of the 1960s designed to ameliorate the harsh history of U.S. racism. Thanks to the way the Republicans explained the decline of good jobs and the victory of the Civil Rights movement, this section of disgruntled Americans turns its ire based on lost opportunities onto relatively powerless populations. The defeat of the working class led to the evisceration of labour laws and the withering away of union power.
The Republicans also carefully cultivated the blocs that dominate the heartland of America, the farming states such as Kansas and Nebraska. Family farmers who lost out to agro-businesses and rural workers who lost their jobs in meat-packing plants and dairy factories to undocumented workers lay the blame on the free trade policies of the Democratic Clinton administration of the 1990s. The Republicans capitalised on that sentiment to seal up these States, even though their party had no agenda for the relief of distress in the heartland. The South and the heartland, because of this, are lost to the Democrats, who have, but for some pockets, failed to make inroads there, particularly during the presidential contest.
The two coasts (the north-east and the west), on the other hand, are guaranteed to enter the Democratic Party’s column in the November general elections. Cosmopolitan and liberal, with a mass base of immigrants and people of colour, these regions are off-limits to the Republicans. So, too, is a pocket in the middle of the country, States such as Illinois and Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota. These have substantial black and Latino populations, liberal political traditions and reasonably robust unions. The bulk of the U.S. population lives in these areas, which also happen to have the more vibrant economies in the country (California has the 10th largest economy in the world). There is no question that New York, Massachusetts, Oregon and California will be won by the Democrats in the presidential election.
The entire contest turns, therefore, on a few “swing States”, such as Florida and Ohio. That is why the contests in these States are so ugly, and why it was the Florida recount that ended up delivering the 2000 election to George W. Bush and the Ohio recount that allowed him to be re-elected. The two parties earn an equivalent number of the popular vote (in the high 40s). But the winner must attain the largest number of votes in the electoral college, an arcane system based on gaining votes per State (so that even if the Democrats win the popular vote, as Al Gore did in 2000, they could end up losing the election).
Short of a landslide, the balance of power is held by a handful of States. In these States, as well, the numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans are relatively even. For that reason, the parties target the “independent” voters and try their best to mobilise their base to the polls. Obama needs to win Florida, for instance.
To the Jewish American lobby in Chicago, Obama affirmed the “special relationship” between Washington and Tel Aviv, supporting Israel’s view of its relationship with its Arab neighbours and of the Occupation and going so far as to say that Jerusalem would remain the undivided capital of Israel. As the Democratic presidential nomination comes his way, Obama tacks right on foreign policy, to the dismay of many of his left-liberal allies. How can the man whose campaign is centred on the idea of change inhabit American foreign policy’s two most tired shackles?Florida
Over the past 35 years, the United States electoral map has settled into stasis. Appealing to the anxiety of a large section of the white working class, the Republican Party has cemented its hold on the U.S. South and sections of the heartland. The Republicans explain away the attrition of white working class livelihood due to globalisation and to neoliberal policy as the fault of the new social programmes of the 1960s designed to ameliorate the harsh history of U.S. racism. Thanks to the way the Republicans explained the decline of good jobs and the victory of the Civil Rights movement, this section of disgruntled Americans turns its ire based on lost opportunities onto relatively powerless populations. The defeat of the working class led to the evisceration of labour laws and the withering away of union power.
The Republicans also carefully cultivated the blocs that dominate the heartland of America, the farming states such as Kansas and Nebraska. Family farmers who lost out to agro-businesses and rural workers who lost their jobs in meat-packing plants and dairy factories to undocumented workers lay the blame on the free trade policies of the Democratic Clinton administration of the 1990s. The Republicans capitalised on that sentiment to seal up these States, even though their party had no agenda for the relief of distress in the heartland. The South and the heartland, because of this, are lost to the Democrats, who have, but for some pockets, failed to make inroads there, particularly during the presidential contest.
The two coasts (the north-east and the west), on the other hand, are guaranteed to enter the Democratic Party’s column in the November general elections. Cosmopolitan and liberal, with a mass base of immigrants and people of colour, these regions are off-limits to the Republicans. So, too, is a pocket in the middle of the country, States such as Illinois and Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota. These have substantial black and Latino populations, liberal political traditions and reasonably robust unions. The bulk of the U.S. population lives in these areas, which also happen to have the more vibrant economies in the country (California has the 10th largest economy in the world). There is no question that New York, Massachusetts, Oregon and California will be won by the Democrats in the presidential election.
The entire contest turns, therefore, on a few “swing States”, such as Florida and Ohio. That is why the contests in these States are so ugly, and why it was the Florida recount that ended up delivering the 2000 election to George W. Bush and the Ohio recount that allowed him to be re-elected. The two parties earn an equivalent number of the popular vote (in the high 40s). But the winner must attain the largest number of votes in the electoral college, an arcane system based on gaining votes per State (so that even if the Democrats win the popular vote, as Al Gore did in 2000, they could end up losing the election).
Short of a landslide, the balance of power is held by a handful of States. In these States, as well, the numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans are relatively even. For that reason, the parties target the “independent” voters and try their best to mobilise their base to the polls. Obama needs to win Florida, for instance.
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